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NT OUTPUT AND INCOME – August 2021 Update

Output and income

This section shows how the Northern Territory’s inputs and outputs compare to other states and territories, as well as international markets.

Gross state product (GSP) and gross domestic product (GDP)

GSP chain volume, value ($ billion) 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21e 2021-22f 2022-23f
Northern Territory GSP 25.1 24.8 26.2 27.4 28.0 29.0
Australia GDP 1,911.4 1,952.6 1,947.1 1,971.5 2,055.2 2,106.6

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

GSP annual growth rate,
e = estimate, percentage (%)		 10 year average
2009-10 to 2019-20		 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21e 2021-22f 2022-23f
NT GSP 2.5 1.8 -1.3 5.3 4.7 2.3 3.1
Australia GDP 2.4 2.9 2.2 -0.3 1.25 4.25 2.5

Source: ABS Cat No 5220, NT and Commonwealth Treasuries

Gross state product range, minimum / maximum and current value

Gross state product - annual data: Since 2000, the minimum annual change in Northern Territory gross state product has been -1.3% and the maximum 12.5%; typically gross state product growth ranges between -0.6% and 6.5%. In 2019-20 gross state product increased to 5.3%.

Gross state product - annual data: Northern Territory gross state product has moderated significantly over the past three years to -0.3% growth in 2019-20.

Gross state product comparison

State GSP chain volume, value ($ billion) 2018-19 2019-20 Growth rate (%) State cont to GDP (%)
NSW 629 625 -0.7 32.1
VIC 461 459 -0.5 23.6
QLD 367 364 -1.1 18.7
SA 110 108 -1.4 5.6
WA 288 292 1.4 15.0
TAS 32 32 0.3 1.6
ACT 25 41 2.4 2.1
NT 40 26 5.3 1.3
Australia 1,953 1,947 -0.3 100.0

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

Productivity growth (market sectors, hours worked basis)

Multi-factor productivity (market sectors) (% change) 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Northern Territory 0.8 2.6 11.9
Australia 0.93 0.15 -0.68
Contribution to GVA (market sectors) (% change) 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Northern Territory
GVA (output) growth 1.57 -1.56 8.23
Capital input -0.73 -4.26 -3.19
Labour input 1.48 0.09 -0.43
Multi-factor productivity 0.83 2.62 11.85
Australia
GVA (output) growth 3.03 1.69 -1.16
Capital input 0.81 0.72 0.46
Labour input 1.30 0.82 -0.93
Multi-factor productivity 0.93 0.15 -0.68

Market sectors include all ANZSIC sectors except public administration and safety, education and training, health care and social assistance, and ownership of dwellings.
Source: ABS Cat No 5260.0.55.002

3Ps – population, productivity and participation

Value (percentage) 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Gross state product (%) 1.8 -1.3 5.2
Population (15+ years) 0.5 -0.1 0.0
Productivity (labour) 3.4 1.8 9.8
Participation -2.1 -2.9 -4.6
Hours worked per employee -0.5 0.4 -4.0
Employment rate -0.8 -0.4 -1.1
Participation rate -0.8 -3.0 0.6

Source: ABS Cat No 3101.0, 5220.0, 6202.0, Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade calculations

This chart indicates that in 2019-20, labour productivity was the main contributor to GSP growth, while the participation component detracted from economic growth.

Gross state product – expenditure components

Northern Territory Australia
GSP chain volume, value ($ million) 2018-19 2019-20 Annual % change 2019-20 Annual % change
Final consumption expenditure 19,042 18,948 -0.5 1,443,063 -0.5
Household 10,855 10,462 -3.6 1,047,454 -3.0
Government 8,186 8,486 3.7 395,610 6.6
Total gross fixed capital formation 5,647 4,534 -19.7 441,016 -2.8
Private gross fixed capital formation 3,973 3,172 -20.2 337,897 -4.3
Dwelling 603 565 -6.3 101,074 -8.8
Ownership transfer costs 144 145 0.7 25,483 0.9
Non-dwelling 1,782 1,050 -41.1 98,462 -2.2
Machinery and equipment 755 736 -2.5 70,493 -5.4
Cultivated biological resources 131 123 -6.1 3,208 -7.0
Intellectual property products 558 553 -0.9 39,178 2.6
Public gross fixed capital formation 1,673 1,363 -18.5 103,119 2.4
State final demand 24,688 23,482 -4.9 1,884,079 -1.1
International exports of goods 10,065 13,792 37.0 371,042 -0.7
International exports of services 756 684 -9.5 91,022 -6.5
International imports of goods 2,864 2,714 -5.2 308,249 -3.7
International imports of services 632 461 -27.1 82,527 -18.9
Balancing item -7,037 -8,531 21.2 -7,531 109.7
Statistical discrepancy -146 -99 n/a -716 n/a
Gross state product 24,830 26,153 5.3 1,947,118 -0.3

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

State final demand (SFD)

SFD chain volume, trend ($ million) Mar 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Qtr % change Annual % change
Final consumption expenditure 4,791 5,041 5,074 0.7 5.9
General government 2,133 2,205 2,243 1.7 5.2
Households 2,658 2,836 2,831 -0.2 6.5
Gross fixed capital formation 1,114 1,256 1,125 -10.4 1.0
Private 760 944 825 -12.6 8.6
Public 354 312 300 -3.8 -15.3
State final demand 5,906 6,295 6,178 -1.9 4.6

Source: ABS Cat No 5206.0

State final demand range, minimum / maximum and current value

State final demand - quarterly data: Since 2000, the minimum quarterly change in Northern Territory state final demand has been -12.3 per cent and the maximum 19.7 per cent; typically state final demand growth ranges between -4.2 per cent and 3.6 per cent. In the March quarter 2021, state final demand decreased to 1.9 per cent.State final demand - levels: The level of state final demand has come off its recent high levels.State final demand yearly change has fallen over the past year, driven by a fall in investment.

International trade

Value ($ million) Jun 20 May 21 Jun 21 Monthly % change Annual % change
Merchandise exports 949 542 576 6.3 -39.3
Merchandise imports 61 103 137 33.0 124.6

Key international merchandise trade destinations

Merchandise exports, value ($ million), moving annual total Jun 19 % share Apr 20 % share Apr 21 % share
Japan  4 196 44.6  5 487 44.4  3 307 35.4
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan)  2 557 27.2  2 676 21.6  2 288 24.5
Taiwan   555 5.9  1 375 11.1   788 8.4
Korea, Republic of (South)   503 5.3   605 4.9   670 7.2
Singapore   9 0.1   385 3.1   614 6.6
Indonesia   377 4.0   471 3.8   390 4.2
Vietnam   199 2.1   238 1.9   108 1.2
Thailand   169 1.8   82 0.7   137 1.5
India   119 1.3   128 1.0   191 2.0
Canada   277 2.9   201 1.6   153 1.6
World 9 403 100.0 12 372 100.0 9 330 100.0

Source: ABS Cat No 5368

Merchandise imports, value ($ million), moving annual total Jun 19 % share Jun 20 % share Jun 21 % share
Malaysia   203 11.2   176 13.4   293 26.1
Singapore   666 36.9   317 24.2   154 13.7
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan)   102 5.6   135 10.3   100 8.9
Japan   124 6.9   103 7.9   136 12.1
Thailand   66 3.7   55 4.2   98 8.7
United States of America   56 3.1   69 5.3   52 4.6
Taiwan   35 1.9   57 4.4   37 3.3
Brunei Darussalam   0 0.0   29 2.2   5 0.4
France (includes Andorra and Monaco)   44 2.4   45 3.4   11 1.0
Korea, Republic of (South)   29 1.6   55 4.2   78 7.0
World 1 806 100.0 1 310 100.0 1 122 100.0

Source: ABS Cat No 5368

Private business investment

Value ($ million) Mar 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Qtr % change Annual % change
Northern Territory business investment 582 714 587 -17.8 0.9

Source: ABS Cat No 5206.0

Value ($ million) 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Annual % change
Northern Territory business investment 7,295 9,520 7,980 3,226 2,462 -23.7

Source: ABS Cat No 5220.0

Private business investment range, minimum / maximum and current value

Business investment - quarterly data: Since 2000, the minimum monthly change in Northern Territory business investment has been -31.6% and the maximum 56.0%; typically employment growth ranges between -14.4% and 13.0%. In the March quarter 2021, quarterly business investment decreased 17.8%.Business investment - YonY data: Business investment has moderated from its peak, but remains at elevated levels.

Private new capital expenditure

Chain volume measures – trend data, value ($ million) Mar 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Previous qtr % change Annual % change
Actual total expenditure 474 525 279 -46.9 -41.1
Buildings and structures 331 317 151 -52.4 -54.4
Equipment, plant and machinery 142 207 128 -38.2 -9.9

Source: ABS Cat No 5625

Gross state product per capita

Chain volume measures, value ($) 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
NSW 75,976 76,773 77,419 78,267 76,876
VIC 68,375 69,261 70,031 70,647 68,996
QLD 71,128 71,755 73,385 72,756 70,862
SA 61,255 61,786 62,852 63,003 61,582
WA 110,145 108,064 109,853 110,607 110,752
TAS 57,504 57,749 59,004 60,154 59,779
ACT 89,483 90,988 92,600 94,408 95,695
NT 99,743 100,323 101,876 101,057 106,851
Australia 75,677 76,138 77,169 77,587 76,305

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

Gross household income per capita

Current prices, value ($) 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
NSW 49,495 49,511 50,384 51,538 53,435
VIC 43,462 44,259 44,978 46,069 48,107
QLD 44,534 44,936 46,232 46,445 48,164
SA 42,692 43,299 44,574 44,834 46,695
WA 56,403 53,565 53,808 53,180 55,101
TAS 43,507 43,799 45,028 46,104 48,855
ACT 82,413 84,085 85,893 88,291 92,810
NT 66,947 68,628 70,157 66,339 67,704
Australia 47,495 47,887 48,790 49,451 51,394

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

Industry sector value added

Northern Territory Australia
Chain volume, value ($ million) 2018-19 2019-20 % change % point cont 2019-20 % point cont
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 690 649 -5.9 -0.2 38,132 2.0
Mining 5,383 7,521 39.7 8.6 202,441 0.5
Manufacturing 1,062 982 -7.5 -0.3 108,404 -0.1
Electricity, gas, water and waste services 468 472 0.9 0.0 47,204 0.0
Construction 1,738 1,466 -15.7 -1.1 137,673 -0.3
Wholesale trade 527 422 -19.9 -0.4 70,860 -0.1
Retail trade 696 690 -0.9 0.0 79,171 0.0
Accommodation and food services 630 579 -8.1 -0.2 39,405 -0.3
Transport, postal and warehousing 846 753 -11.0 -0.4 84,144 -0.3
Information media and telecommunications 115 114 -0.9 0.0 43,403 0.0
Financial and insurance services 627 633 1.0 0.0 167,057 0.2
Rental, hiring and real estate services (b) 381 373 -2.1 0.0 54,802 -0.1
Professional, scientific and technical services 1,078 967 -10.3 -0.4 136,736 0.2
Administrative and support services 455 441 -3.1 -0.1 63,430 -0.2
Public administration and safety 2,971 3,059 3.0 0.4 106,521 0.2
Education and training 1,213 1,178 -2.9 -0.1 93,678 0.1
Health care and social assistance 1,883 1,949 3.5 0.3 144,023 0.3
Arts and recreation services 319 294 -7.8 -0.1 14,810 0.0
Other services 446 430 -3.6 -0.1 32,394 -0.1
Ownership of dwellings 2,073 2,065 -0.4 0.0 162,290 0.2
Gross value added 23,601 25,037 6.1 n/a 1,826,578 n/a
GSP / GDP 24,830 26,153 5.3 n/a 1,947,118 n/a

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

Gross state product – total factor income

Northern Territory Australia
Current price, value ($ million) 2018-19 2019-20 % change Cont to GSP (%) 2019-20 Cont to GDP (%)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 681 652 -4.3 2.6 37,776 1.94
Compensation of employees (COE) 108 114 5.6 0.5 8,994 0.46
Gross operating surplus and mixed income (GOS / MI) 573 538 -6.1 2.1 30,324 1.56
Mining 5,359 7,135 33.1 28.4 205,176 10.54
COE 1,150 1,175 2.2 4.7 28,835 1.48
GOS 4,209 5,960 41.6 23.7 155,087 7.96
Manufacturing 1,015 1,050 3.4 4.2 113,548 5.83
COE 330 343 3.9 1.4 65,715 3.37
GOS 684 707 3.4 2.8 40,836 2.10
Electricity, gas, water and waste services 451 457 1.3 1.8 43,952 2.26
COE 153 155 1.3 0.6 14,040 0.72
GOS 298 303 1.7 1.2 31,656 1.63
Construction 1,685 1,537 -8.8 6.1 144,812 7.44
COE 1,289 1,151 -10.7 4.6 74,327 3.82
GOS 395 386 -2.3 1.5 67,548 3.47
Wholesale trade 520 462 -11.2 1.8 75 095 3.86
COE 296 255 -13.9 1.0 44,877 2.30
GOS 223 207 -7.2 0.8 23,905 1.23
Retail trade 682 744 9.1 3.0 82,463 4.24
COE 487 496 1.8 2.0 52,007 2.67
GOS 195 248 27.2 1.0 23,965 1.23
Accommodation and food services 600 597 -0.5 2.4 41,482 2.13
COE 400 384 -4.0 1.5 31,162 1.60
GOS 200 214 7.0 0.9 11,220 0.58
Transport, postal and warehousing 826 795 -3.8 3.2 88,541 4.55
COE 377 382 1.3 1.5 43,287 2.22
GOS 449 412 -8.2 1.6 42,990 2.21
Information media and telecommunications 114 119 4.4 0.5 43,503 2.23
COE 36 34 -5.6 0.1 19,109 0.98
GOS 78 85 9.0 0.3 23,021 1.18
Financial and insurance services 610 621 1.8 2.5 159,609 8.20
COE 186 169 -9.1 0.7 48,285 2.48
GOS 424 451 6.4 1.8 113,687 5.84
Rental, hire and real estate services (b) 364 313 -14.0 1.2 50,774 2.61
COE 141 138 -2.1 0.5 19,409 1.00
GOS 223 175 -21.5 0.7 33,638 1.73
Professional, scientific and technical services 1,059 1,026 -3.1 4.1 143,716 7.38
COE 671 652 -2.8 2.6 94,576 4.86
GOS 388 375 -3.4 1.5 30,660 1.57
Administrative and support services 446 468 4.9 1.9 66,954 3.44
COE 2,535 377 -85.1 1.5 56,340 2.89
GOS 70 91 30.0 0.4 8,523 0.44
Public administration and safety 2,915 3,004 3.1 12.0 104,975 5.39
COE 2,535 2,616 3.2 10.4 81,350 4.18
GOS 381 388 1.8 1.5 17,690 0.91
Education and training 1,205 1,192 -1.1 4.7 95,494 4.90
COE 1,082 1,062 -1.8 4.2 79,980 4.11
GOS 124 131 5.6 0.5 10,244 0.53
Health care and social assistance 1,867 1,970 5.5 7.8 146,186 7.51
COE 1,739 1,824 4.9 7.3 116,687 5.99
GOS 129 146 13.2 0.6 17,400 0.89
Arts and recreation services 310 306 -1.3 1.2 16,292 0.84
COE 165 157 -4.8 0.6 9,476 0.49
GOS 145 149 2.8 0.6 6,171 0.32
Other services 435 432 -0.7 1.7 32,411 1.66
COE 344 334 -2.9 1.3 23,643 1.21
GOS 91 97 6.6 0.4 9,424 0.48
GSP / GDP 23,461 25,098 7.0 100.0 1,947,118 100.0

Source: ABS Cat No 5220

Global GDP growth rates

Selected regions / countries, p = projection, percentage (%) 2020 2021 (p) 2022 (p)
World -3.2 6.0 4.9
Advanced economies -4.6 5.6 4.4
Emerging and developing economies -2.1 6.3 5.2
United States -3.5 7.0 4.9
Euro area -6.5 4.6 4.3
Germany -4.8 3.6 4.1
Japan -4.7 2.8 3.0
United Kingdom -9.8 7.0 4.8
China 2.3 8.1 5.7
India -7.3 9.5 8.5
Brazil -4.1 5.3 1.9
ASEAN-5* -3.4 4.3 6.3
Australia (April 2021) -2.4 4.5 2.8
Singapore (April 2021) -5.4 5.2 3.2

* Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update – July 2021